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Test results on different NumWFOCycles settings #470454
01/15/18 22:10
01/15/18 22:10
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 43
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Fiber Offline OP
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Fiber  Offline OP
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Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 43
Trying to evaluate strategy for robustness. It shows good result on one particular NumWFOCycles=10 setting but much worse on another settings like NumWFOCycles=20 or NumWFOCycles=5
Can be strategy trusted if working well only on one WFO cycle number?

Re: Test results on different NumWFOCycles settings [Re: Fiber] #470462
01/16/18 11:53
01/16/18 11:53
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 102
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Brax Offline
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Brax  Offline
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I've had the same issue with several strategies...

For example, in daily timeframe i've found it works well to set one year out of sample by default:

DataSplit = 85;
WFOPeriod = 252*DataSplit/(100-DataSplit);

Ideally, a strategy should perform reasonably good with different cycles, but i guess this is something one must find out by experience. I agree with the manual that most robust cycles numbers are between 5 and 10.

This is just my experience so far, surely more expert people like jcl can shed more light into this question.

Cheers.

Re: Test results on different NumWFOCycles settings [Re: Brax] #470463
01/16/18 13:00
01/16/18 13:00
Joined: Dec 2016
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Fiber Offline OP
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Fiber  Offline OP
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I see few issues here.
Even when running WFO test with same cycle number Lookback setting heavily influences Test and Train period. For example:
LookBack = 500;
StartDate = 2005;
EndDate = 2016;
NumWFOCycles = 10;

result:
WFO test cycles 9 x 178 bars (36 weeks)
Training cycles 10 x 1008 bars (208 weeks)

and when change only LookBack:
LookBack = 200;
StartDate = 2005;
EndDate = 2016;
NumWFOCycles = 10;

result totally different:
WFO test cycles 9 x 198 bars (40 weeks)
Training cycles 10 x 1124 bars (232 weeks)

That's why I was not able to find a way to calculate WFO cycle number for fixed number of days by using
NumWFOCycles = (barsTotal-barsTrain)/barsTest + 1;

Is there a way to keep same train/test period regardless of LookBack and StartDay ans EndDay settings?

Also I think to stick to number of cycles between 5 and 10 is irrelevant because it's totally depends on testing period.

Last edited by Fiber; 01/16/18 16:03.
Re: Test results on different NumWFOCycles settings [Re: Fiber] #470473
01/16/18 18:31
01/16/18 18:31
Joined: Aug 2017
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Brax Offline
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Brax  Offline
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I know no better way to set a "fixed" train/test period than what i stated before. Obviously LookBack and test period make a impact on WFO results, that's the same with almost any strategy you can find out there.

There'll be always some factors that will escape our control, that's why i think it's not so important to set a magical number of cycles or parameters and so on. Live trading will always surprise us.

The only rule i know about WFO is that your strategy should at least perform 50% of the ideal performance of a non-wfo test.

Again, this is only my opinion. I'd really like to read the advise of more experienced people.


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