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#466158 - 05/28/17 02:23 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility
DdlV Offline
Serious User

Registered: 06/10/13
Posts: 1243
Hi jcl.

I am updating to 1.58 this weekend. As part of my update process I Test with various Margin slider settings (Risk slider doesn't seem to matter any longer). I've noticed that as new versions of the strategy have come out that volatility has increased.

1.58 Z3 seems to exhibit much more volatility at different Margin than prior versions. At both Margin 49 and 51, for example, DD is > 1400 and AR is more like 70%. The other measures (PF, SR, UI, etc.) also bounce around similarly. Graphing these measures for various Margin slider settings does show a trend, but there is much more volatility around the trend than in past versions. Looking at the straight-line values at Margin 50 rather than the Margin=50 point values gives AR more like 100%, Cap Req'd more like 1200, etc.; indicating that using the Margin=50 point values of 130%, ~900, etc. in the Manual is rather misleading...

Do you see the same thing? If so, any idea why Z3's results now vary so much with different Margin slider setting? Past versions were substantially smoother...

Thanks.

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#466444 - 06/14/17 15:32 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: DdlV]
DdlV Offline
Serious User

Registered: 06/10/13
Posts: 1243
Hi jcl. Welcome back! Would appreciate your thoughts on this and the other Z3 question when you have a sec. Thanks.

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#466480 - 06/16/17 16:31 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: DdlV]
jcl Offline

Chief Engineer

Registered: 07/22/00
Posts: 25548
Loc: Frankfurt
Thanks! The relation of Margin and profit is not linear. There are two reasons for this, lot size granularity and skipping trades when the margin is too low. Especially the last effect can cause a different AR at different Margin settings.

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#466500 - 06/18/17 16:57 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: jcl]
DdlV Offline
Serious User

Registered: 06/10/13
Posts: 1243
Thanks jcl.

I understand the non-linearity. I was rather trying to get at 2 other points:

a) The volatility of Z3's Tests at different Margin values is greater now than it has been in the past. (I.e., its "VIX" as opposed to its trend.)

b) Because of a), using the Test results of a single Margin point (50) does not truly reflect how Z3 is expected to perform. In the case of the 1.58 Z3, the expected performance is actually lower than the Margin=50 Test results; but in future versions it could conceivably be higher.

Is this a correct perception & understanding?

Or are you saying that in Real Trading of 1.58 Z3 one should expect substantially better results using Margin=50 than if one used Margin=49 or Margin=51?

Thanks.

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#466515 - 06/19/17 10:05 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: DdlV]
jcl Offline

Chief Engineer

Registered: 07/22/00
Posts: 25548
Loc: Frankfurt
Since any update comes with different parameters and possibly other modifications to the Z systems, the margin volatility is unlikely remain constant.

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#466534 - 06/19/17 21:12 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: jcl]
DdlV Offline
Serious User

Registered: 06/10/13
Posts: 1243
Thanks jcl. Would appreciate also your comments on the other aspects. To wit, is the manual's reporting of a point Margin's results OK, or should the (in this case lower) fit values have been reported? Probably more importantly, in Real Trading using the point Margin value should one expect the point results, or the (lower) fit results?

Thanks.

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#466552 - 06/20/17 19:48 Re: 1.58 Z3 Margin slider results volatility [Re: DdlV]
jcl Offline

Chief Engineer

Registered: 07/22/00
Posts: 25548
Loc: Frankfurt
I assume that the data in the manual is ok as long as I have no information to the contrary. And in real trading, I would generally not expect to get the same results and volatility as in a backtest - unrelated to what margin you're setting.

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