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OptF factor selection bias #457227
01/07/16 11:58
01/07/16 11:58
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 336
Rogaland
N
nanotir Offline OP
Senior Member
nanotir  Offline OP
Senior Member
N

Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 336
Rogaland
Hi

I read in a post about z12 http://www.opserver.de/ubb7/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=449794&page=19. There, jcl is referring to a possible bias due to the calculation of the OptF factor
Quote:
Second, it is too optimistic, due to the OptF factor calculation over the whole simulation period. This introduces selection bias. So it is possible and has in fact happened that you made loss in a period when the simulation made profit.


So I wonder if there is a way to eliminate or evaluate such a bias. Something similar to the detrend function which is used for different kind of bias.


Last edited by Nanitek; 01/07/16 12:42.
Re: OptF factor selection bias [Re: nanotir] #457229
01/07/16 14:52
01/07/16 14:52
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 27,978
Frankfurt
jcl Offline

Chief Engineer
jcl  Offline

Chief Engineer

Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 27,978
Frankfurt
The bias could be eliminated by calculating the OptF factors not from the whole period, but using new factors for every WFO period. This would indeed work for factors calculated in a different way, but not for Optimal-F, since they rely on the extrema over the whole backtest.

So the answer is no, the factor bias can not be eliminated in an easy way. It is thus recommended to develop the system with no factors for verifying if it is profitable or not. Use the factors only in the last step.

Re: OptF factor selection bias [Re: jcl] #457231
01/07/16 19:41
01/07/16 19:41
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 336
Rogaland
N
nanotir Offline OP
Senior Member
nanotir  Offline OP
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N

Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 336
Rogaland
Good to know that there is a way eventhough the strategy comes with this bias.

Re: OptF factor selection bias [Re: jcl] #463993
01/12/17 02:18
01/12/17 02:18
Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 64
J
Jeff1228 Offline
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Jeff1228  Offline
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 64
Interesting stuff

Last edited by Jeff1228; 01/14/17 20:37.

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