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A strategy's life-span... #446645
10/24/14 14:51
10/24/14 14:51
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 23
M
Mothership Offline OP
Newbie
Mothership  Offline OP
Newbie
M

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 23
Hi!

Couple of weeks ago I somewhere read (can't really remember where I read or who said it) that strategies don't have infinite life - a strategy maybe works for 4-6 years or so.

A thought occurred to me consindering this. Often when I backtest my srategy the backtest window often consists of 10-12 years or so. Does this mean that the strategy "doesn't really work" on half (or so) of the backtest window? Won't the result be missleading then?

And, isn't the optimization-function supposed to take care of this "problem" since then optimization helps the strategy to adapt to new market conditions?


MS

Re: A strategy's life-span... [Re: Mothership] #446662
10/26/14 11:12
10/26/14 11:12
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 45
Germany
webradio Offline
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webradio  Offline
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 45
Germany
What timeframe do you use for trading? Were 4-6 years meant for a strategy with parameters which are never re-tuned? Or self-tuned during strategy's life?

Even using 10-12 years for backtest, you could see when equity curve went up and when down. So if it went up only once 8 years ago and then went sideways - that's a bad sign i.m.h.o. Chances are high, that there was a big change in those years and, yes, the strategy "doesn't really work" in a considerable part of backtest window. That's why I beleive that the window whould'n be too big for optimization; and that OOS test is a must.

Time span choosen for optimisation matters a lot. E.Chan:
Quote:
The most basic safeguard against data-snooping bias is to ensure that you have a sufficient amount of backtest data relative to the number of free parameters you want to optimize. As a rule of thumb, let’s assume that the number of data points needed for optimizing your parameters is equal to 252 times the number of free parameters your model has. (This assumption of proportionality is not based on any survey of the vast statistical literature, but purely on experience.) So, for example, let’s assume you have a daily trading model with three parameters. Then you should have at least three years’ worth of backtest data with daily prices.

Re: A strategy's life-span... [Re: webradio] #447269
11/30/14 17:12
11/30/14 17:12
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 23
M
Mothership Offline OP
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Mothership  Offline OP
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M

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 23
Hi!

Mostly 60 or 240 min.

I'm mostly talking about self-tuned strategies.

Re: A strategy's life-span... [Re: Mothership] #447281
12/01/14 17:45
12/01/14 17:45
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 27,982
Frankfurt
jcl Offline

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jcl  Offline

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Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 27,982
Frankfurt
With some systems, the reason why it expires is easy to analyze, with other systems it's hard to tell. But yes, most systems indeed expire after about 5 to 6 years, at least in our experience, even when the system is regularly optimized. That's why it normally does not make sense to run a backtest over more that 6-7 years.


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