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How much is enough? (annual return when testing the strategy) #467203
07/20/17 17:45
07/20/17 17:45
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
GreenBoat Offline OP
Junior Member
GreenBoat  Offline OP
Junior Member

Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
I have a few strategies which look promising.

However, I am not sure for how high return per year am I looking for?

For example on the image below is one of my strategies.

Zorro tells me that there is 12% annual return and 1,11 sharpe ratio. 64% of trades are profitable.
Is it enough for continuing with the development? (adding SL, PT, money management, etc.)

Or should it be more? What are the parameters allowing continuing with the development?

Attached Files stra.jpg
Re: How much is enough? (annual return when testing the strategy) [Re: GreenBoat] #467210
07/20/17 21:07
07/20/17 21:07
Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 652
Milano, Italy
M
MatPed Offline
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MatPed  Offline
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Joined: Feb 2015
Posts: 652
Milano, Italy
Hard to say with so few info's:
Is that test OOS or IS?
Margin/lot fixed?
How many trade/optimized parameter?
How many asset?
...


Post the full test report if you want any documented opinion.

Ciao

Re: How much is enough? (annual return when testing the strategy) [Re: MatPed] #467214
07/21/17 08:51
07/21/17 08:51
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
GreenBoat Offline OP
Junior Member
GreenBoat  Offline OP
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Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
Hi, thanks for the answer.

It is IS. It's just the first test of the idea. I have few of these.

Only one contract, no position sizing, no SL, only one asset (SPY). The logic of the strategy is always simple, hopefully not parameters dependable. This one is for example one momentum indicator with trend indicator and for exits another indicator. The idea is quite simple, although I had to go thru few combinations to find the best one.

Re: How much is enough? (annual return when testing the strategy) [Re: GreenBoat] #467515
08/08/17 13:39
08/08/17 13:39
Joined: Feb 2017
Posts: 24
sodiumchloride Offline
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sodiumchloride  Offline
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Posts: 24
i red alot about sharpe ratio and quiet many say they dont care about it, since it penalizes "positive drawdowns" in the same way as classic drawdowns.

for example: you have a well working systems with lot of winning phases and only small drawdowns -> you get low sharp ratio. because your equity curve is not smooth.

then you can cut your profits artificially, which lowers your profit factor and overall performance BUT your sharpe ratio will be higher.

" A variation of the Sharpe ratio is the Sortino ratio, which removes the effects of upward price movements on standard deviation to measure only return against downward price volatility and uses the semivariance in the denominator."

further: did you apply oversampling and monte carlo?

Re: How much is enough? (annual return when testing the strategy) [Re: sodiumchloride] #467518
08/08/17 14:43
08/08/17 14:43
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
GreenBoat Offline OP
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GreenBoat  Offline OP
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Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 66
Let me explain it by a quote from jcl:
http://www.financial-hacker.com/better-tests-with-oversampling/
"It will not work for systems based on daily bars."

So I think that oversampling is not solution for me, because I use daily bars only.

I tried monte carlo, yes.


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