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SGT_FW
by Aku_Aku. 05/31/26 11:05
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5 registered members (alx, TipmyPip, AndrewAMD, Quad, 1 invisible),
3,180
guests, and 3
spiders. |
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Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
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Yesterday at 14:39
Any luck?
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Yesterday at 14:38
Any update on the issue? This makes Zorro completely unusable.
Thanks
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Yesterday at 13:07
The simulator is designed as a multiscale time series laboratory for studying how a nonstationary observed process can be decomposed, forecast, regularized, and reassembled through interacting stochastic representations across multiple temporal resolutions. Its purpose is to compare heterogeneous autoregressive, integrated, moving-average, seasonal, and exogenous-state formulations on the same evolving signal, while simultaneously tracking the local geometry of the series through derived state variables such as displacement-like level, velocity-like increment, acceleration-like curvature, higher-order change, energy-like amplitude concentration, damping-like persistence loss, and resonance-like frequency alignment. The system evaluates how these derived quantities co-evolve under changing dependence structure, changing variance, changing memory depth, and changing cross-scale agreement, and it uses those interactions to adapt the relative influence of competing forecasting contexts. In this sense, the simulator is not merely a forecast engine but a dynamic estimator of structure, where each contextual model contributes a partial view of the underlying temporal law and where contextual weights are updated according to residual whiteness, normality, heteroskedasticity sensitivity, error persistence, directional agreement, and state-consistency criteria. The framework also serves as a controlled environment for examining the stability of recursive model reuse, the consequences of delayed refitting, the emergence of seasonal persistence, the effect of transformed coordinates such as logarithmic and differenced states, and the propagation of uncertainty through an ensemble of conditional predictive distributions. At a higher level, the simulator can be understood as an adaptive operator on time-indexed data that maps raw observations into a hierarchy of latent state summaries, local diagnostics, cross-resolution coherence measures, and regime-sensitive forecast fields. Its central mathematical aim is to explore how one can construct a robust, self-correcting approximation to a complex evolving time series by coupling classical stochastic process models with state-dependent weighting, multiresolution consistency checks, and dynamically stabilized forecast aggregation.
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06/09/26 20:42
Hi there
I have been running Z12 live with RoboForex through MT4 since May 4, 2026. After 80 closed trades, the results are:
Net result: -$1,736.59 Win rate: 30% Profit factor: 0.287 Maximum closed-trade drawdown: about -$1,744 I compared the live result with every overlapping 80-trade window in the backtest. About 0.72% of historical windows performed as badly or worse, so this appears possible but unusually poor.
The losses were concentrated in indices and metals: XAU/USD: -$811 US30: -$702 NAS100: -$183 GER30: -$169 FX total: approximately +$128
I also had 15 Skipped (Margin ... Min 2) messages, all on EUR/USD. They involved CT_75 shorts and HP_59 longs. These directions have very small OptimalF values: CT_75 short: 0.002 versus 0.309 long HP_59 long: 0.013 versus 0.557 short The live and backtest EUR/USD contract parameters match, so these skips appear to be normal minimum-size/ACCUMULATE behavior rather than insufficient account margin so I have trouble seeing how this could affect the performance too much.
I also got this Warning 054: US30 LotAmount 0.10 -> 0.010 Warning 054: US30 MarginCost 48 -> 5.0 Warning 054: US30 PIPCost 0.1000 -> 0.001000 Warning 054: US30 PIP 1.000 -> 0.1000 After normalizing Lots × PIPCost / PIP, average US30 exposure was approximately $0.216 per index point live versus $0.284 in the backtest. So the live exposure was about 24% lower which means I'm at least not taking on more risk than the system in backtest
Does this analysis suggest an ordinary but rare bad Z12 period? It seems like the phantom trading should step in a some point?
I mean I have been reading the news lately so I know we've had a rather spicy time in the markets. I just wanted to say this is money I can afford to lose but I'm just curious if anyone else has had a rough patch with this one?
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