Thank you very much, MIGI.
It seems that there is a big difference between the versions indeed. This is a backtest of the strategy for 2014. Same code, same data (FXCM .bar files), same asset configuration, very different results. There is no training involved and it's very simple mean reversion strategy based on one indicator with no parameters. Before I investigate further - any ideas why is this happening?
Test IsIbs EUR/USD
Simulated account AssetsFix
Bar period 1 hour (avg 86 min)
Test period 07.01.2014-31.12.2014 (5963 bars)
Lookback period 80 bars (3 days)
Monte Carlo cycles 200
Simulation mode Realistic ticks (slippage 5.0 sec)
Avg ticks per bar 61.3
Spread 0.5 pips (roll -0.42/0.06)
Contracts per lot 100000.0
Gross win/loss 97530$ / -78307$ (+1922p)
Average profit 19605$/year, 1634$/month, 75$/day
Max drawdown -5875$ 31% (MAE -5875$ 31%)
Total down time 92% (TAE 94%)
Max down time 26 days from Feb 2014
Max open margin 2236$
Max open risk 1400$
Trade volume 173272874$ (176720192$/year)
Transaction costs -6525$ spr, 8668$ slp, -116$ rol
Capital required 12512$
Number of trades 1305 (1331/year, 26/week, 6/day)
Percent winning 65.8%
Max win/loss 1030$ / -1962$
Avg trade profit 15$ 1.5p (+11.4p / -17.6p)
Avg trade slippage 6.64$ 0.7p (+1.4p / -0.7p)
Avg trade bars 3 (+2 / -5)
Max trade bars 35 (35 hours)
Time in market 83%
Max open trades 1
Max loss streak 5 (uncorrelated 7)
Annual return 157%
Profit factor 1.25 (PRR 1.15)
Sharpe ratio 2.48
Kelly criterion 3.92
R2 coefficient 0.873
Ulcer index 9.0%
Test IsIbs EUR/USD
Simulated account AssetsFix
Bar period 1 hour (avg 86 min)
Test period 07.01.2014-31.12.2014 (5963 bars)
Lookback period 80 bars (3 days)
Monte Carlo cycles 200
Assumed slippage 10.0 sec
Avg ticks per bar 61.3
Spread 0.5 pips (roll -0.42/0.06)
Contracts per lot 100000.0
Gross win/loss 94183$ / -81382$ (+1280p)
Average profit 13056$/year, 1088$/month, 50$/day
Max drawdown -6644$ 52% (MAE -6639$ 52%)
Total down time 96% (TAE 95%)
Max down time 7 weeks from Oct 2014
Max open margin 2236$
Max open risk 1400$
Trade volume 173272829$ (176720146$/year)
Transaction costs -6525$ spr, 2238$ slp, -116$ rol
Capital required 13858$
Number of trades 1305 (1331/year, 26/week, 6/day)
Percent winning 64.4%
Max win/loss 1041$ / -1984$
Avg trade profit 9.81$ 1.0p (+11.2p / -17.5p)
Avg trade slippage 1.71$ 0.2p (+0.4p / -0.2p)
Avg trade bars 3 (+2 / -5)
Max trade bars 35 (35 hours)
Time in market 83%
Max open trades 1
Max loss streak 8 (uncorrelated 7)
Annual return 94%
Profit factor 1.16 (PRR 1.07)
Sharpe ratio 1.64
Kelly criterion 2.85
R2 coefficient 0.705
Ulcer index 16.4%
Prediction error 122%